Thursday, July 6th, 2006

No signs of top

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The director of global investment strategies at Van Kampen Investments, which runs a series of mutual funds including aggressive growth and emerging growth, says the market has not shown signs of a classic market top. But he warns that volatility could increase.

Richard Golod said before the correction in the last few months there were little signs of irrational exuberance, speculative buying (commodities being the notable exception), overvaluation, or narrow market leadership. “I expect the markets will remain choppy for the next couple of months,” he said. “My main market concern is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could over-tighten monetary conditions and drive the economy into a recession. This is well within the realm of possibility; historically, it happened in eight of the last 12 tightening cycles.”

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